Applicant
vs
Successful

Ill break down each unit so you can see why you need to use our free app feature to see each units point pool.  By clicking on the unit from the search screen the app will display the data from the state that shows applicants vs successful.

Unit 12,23,24,35,231

4 year data     Tags     Applicants     Max Points

           2015      3               28                       8      

           2016      3               22                       11

           2017       3              16                        10

           2018       3              37                       10

12 points should be 100% next year if everything stays the same.    11 points had 3 applicants and 1 drew a tag, so there should be 2 applicants with 12 next year plus me.  So if nothing changes for the worse me and the other 2 applicants should be guaranteed.  Unless they change tag numbers or someone jumps units.

Unit 43

4 year data     Tags     Applicants     Max Points

           2015       6                18                   7

           2016      10              25                   5

           2017        12             41                   8

           2018        12             38                  8

I should have more than enough for this unit.  As the 4 year average is only 7 points to draw.  Unless something drastic happened on this units odds I could basically plan on drawing this unit.  Just because the unit is not close to my max points to draw does not mean I would rule it out either.

Unit 65

4 year data     Tags     Applicants     Max Points

           2015       5                114                   11

           2016       5                17                     9

           2017        7                39                   11

           2018        7               25                    11

This is one nearing my max and has a 4 year average of 10.5 pts to draw.  Looking at the point pool.  There were 2 applicants with 10 that should move onto next year.  If no one jumps ship and the tags stay the same I will be the highest point and assured a tag.  This is one of my contenders right now.

Unit 74

4 year data     Tags     Applicants     Max Points

           2015       5               55                       12      

           2016       4               64                       15

           2017        4              54                       15

           2018       6              69                       15

This is the hardest to draw Early rifle hunt in Colorado.  I would have to wait 3 more years to hopefully draw this unit.  Looking deeper into the pool.   12 points is 20th place for the next couple years tags to be issued.  With only a 6 tag average for 4 years.  Even thought the 7 tags wiped out the highest point holders.  The 8 applicants with 14 points will still have to fight over the 6-7 tags for next season.  So 15 will still be the point number to be.  This unit will need to be replaced by another unit.  I will not draw based of the data.

Unit 82

4 year data     Tags     Applicants     Max Points

           2015       6               42                  11

           2016        6             23                   15

           2017        6             27                  14

           2018        6             40                  14

12 points is a major risk if I want o hunt next year.  If I looked at the 2017 odds after the higher point holders were cleared I had a legit shot at drawing for 2018.  There were 8 applicants with 13 or more points.  After the 6 tags cleared them out I should have been in line for a tag.  But there was a significant pool change.  There were 7 applicants with 12 or more points but the highest went from 14 to 19 in 2018.  I would have been sorely disappointed going into the draw for 2018.

Episode 12

I talk about the point creep in detail on my top 5 list. Click the link to listen.